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Vol. 3 No. 14 (2026)
General Professional Sciences

Articles

TUPROQLI TO'G'ONLARNING DEFORMATSION XAVFSIZLIGINI BAHOLASHNING KO'P DARAJALI MEZONLAR TIZIMI VA ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH ALGORITMI (TO'POLON TO'G'ONI MISOLIDA)

DOI 10.63294/isja/vol3iss14/309 Google Scholar Search in Scholar Pages 34-43

Published 2026-10-08

Authors
Abdukarimov M.M.
Affiliation
Alfraganus universiteti, Turizm fakulteti, Umumkasbiy fanlar kafedrasi katta o’qituvchisi
ALFRAGANUS — Vol. 3, Issue 14 (2026), Umumkasbiy fanlar
PDF (Uzbek) Download

Abstract

Although modern monitoring instruments make it possible to record dam deformation with millimetre accuracy, a measurement result is not in itself an assessment of the structure's condition: converting a raw value into a safety decision requires a formalised system of criteria. This paper proposes a three-level system of criteria for assessing the deformation safety of earthfill dams: the metrological level (verification of the statistical validity of the measured displacement), the normative level (comparison against absolute threshold values), and the kinematic level (classification by deformation velocity and acceleration). On this basis, a step-bystep early-warning algorithm has been developed and applied to actual monitoring data from the Topalang earthfill dam (Surkhandarya region, Uzbekistan). The calculations show that the horizontal displacement of 28 mm recorded at station GNSS-3 on the dam crest substantially exceeds three times the combined rootmean-square error (3σ_L = 8.49 mm) and is therefore classified as a statistically genuine deformation; at the same time, it constitutes 93 % of the 30 mm threshold recommended by ICOLD. The displacement rate of 30.94 mm/yr identified by radar interferometry on the unloaded downstream slope corresponds to 2.58 mm/month and falls within the "control" level of the proposed classification. The results demonstrate the need to link assessment criteria not only to absolute magnitude but also to deformation velocity and acceleration, and the value of adapting threshold values to the individual characteristics of each structure.

Keywords

dam safety, deformation criteria, statistical reliability, deformation rate, early warning, earthfill dam, ICOLD, Topalang dam

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